Background on action in The Horn of
Africa
‘This is not a war between Ethiopia and Somalia’
Demgogue jumps from
Marxism-Leninism to Buddhism
Analysis by Mohamed
Hassan
(Mohamed Hassan, a former Ethopian diplomat,
is a university professor in Brussels, Belgium. In 2003 he wrote a book.
L’Irak face à l’Occupation (Iraq eye to eye with the occupation)
with David Pestieau. The book on the war in Iraq has been
published in French, Dutch, Spanish, Italian, German and
Turkish.)
To understand what is
happening in the Horn of Africa, the nature of the TPLF-regime of Zenawi Meles
in Ethiopia that sent its
troops into Somalia last December must first be
explained.
The Tigray People’s
Liberation Front (TPLF) was created in 1975. In its first manifesto it said its
main objective was to create the Independent republic of Tigray. This is a narrow nationalist and
racist approach that makes language the first factor to unite or divide people.
There was opposition to this narrow vision within the TPLF itself as well as
within the other organisations and fronts that fought against the Mengistu
regime, the dictatorship of that time.
The mainstream idea was that
Tigray was part of Ethiopia and there was no reason to
claim independence for Tigray. The main objective for the liberation struggle in
Ethiopia was to create a new
Ethiopia based on equality of
nationalities and brotherly relations with all neighboring countries. After 50
years of war this very rich region inhabited by poor people desired a new start
and the beginning of a developing economy.
Zenawi Meles is a great
demagogue and a liar. He uses Marxism-Leninism today and tomorrow he will use
Buddhism. The day after he will read a few books and be the champion of Hinduism
against Buddhism. He hid his narrow Tigray-nationalist agenda of TPLF
and created the Marxist Leninist League of Tigray to gain control of the
TPLF and eliminate all opposition against his narrow racist ideology within
it.
In the eighties when the
struggle against the Mengistu dictatorship became stronger he also created
the EPRDFF which was a larger front of different organisations representing
different nationalities living in Ethiopia, under the leadership of the
TPLF. Meles pretended to unite Ethiopian nationalities in the struggle for the
liberation of Ethiopia, but
all the time its real objective was the creation of a greater Tigray, that
controls the other nationalities and regions in Ethiopia.
Once the Mengistu-regime
fell, a transitional government was formed. The EPLF (Eritrean People Liberation
Front) from the neighboring country Eritrea that was occupied by Ethiopia,
convinced all the other organisations who were members of this government that
it was better to give military control of the country to the army of TPLF. When
Zenawi saw that in the regional elections of 1992 the Omore liberation front won
they began eliminating its members from the government and the OLF left the
government. Instead of following a policy of integration of the different
nationalities, Zenawi followed a policy of “divide and rule” against all the
other nationalities in Ethiopia.
Today Zenawi’s unbelievably
narrow and reactionary dream of “a greater Tigray” has become reality. The
population of Tigray is only 6% of the Ethiopian population (76 million) and
Tigray is a poor region, situated at 800 km from the capital Addis Ababa. But it is
Tigray-people who control 99% of public services and 98% of
trade.
All opposition and protest is
brutally repressed and the rule of the TPLF/EPRDF is maintained by narrow racist
nationalist policies that divide the different Ethiopian
nationalities.
In reality this is a very
dangerous situation first of all for the Tigray people itself. I know many
people from Tigray who have lived their whole lives in Addis Ababa and who flee
the country, because they felt themselves more and more hated each day by their
neighbors of whom the overwhelming majority are non
Tigray.
At the same time the regime
is very weak and depends completely on the support of the USA.
The May 2005 elections were a
big defeat for the EPRDF. The official results published a month after the
elections put the EPRDF in a minority position of 45%. The EU observers
confirmed the defeat of the EPRDF. However the official election committee did
an “investigation” and finally gave 60% to the EPRDF. The leaders of the main
opposition parties were put in jail and many people were
killed.
During the past year, the
opposition inside Ethiopia has become more radical. In
August 2006, a group of high-ranking officers led by General Kamal Galchuu
joined the Oromo Liberation Front. In the Orome area a real intifadah started up
and a few months ago, the OLF launched an appeal to all opposition groups to
join the united front ADF (Alliance for Democracy and
Freedom).
The USA is pleased
with the situation because this way it has a puppet that completely depends on
its financial, political and military support. The Ethiopian state is becoming
more and more a CIA-led state that is very isolated.
The conflict with
Eritrea
In fact the military capacity
of the EPRDF in the eighties was relatively weak. It was its close relationship
with the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) that was militarily strong
that made victory over the dictator Mengisthu in 1991 possible. It was the
troops of the EPLF that liberated the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. But the EPLF
was a liberation movement of a neighboring country, Eritrea, that had been occupied by
Ethiopia since 1952 and was annexed
in 1962. And the objective of the EPRF was to liberate Eritrea from the
Ethiopian occupation. So it formed a close alliance with the EPRDF/TPLF to
topple the Ethiopian government. Once this was done, the EPLF took over the
administration of Eritrea and
organized in Eritrea a referendum in 1993 where
more then 98% of Eritreans voted for independence. While in Ethiopia a
transitional government was formed led by EPRDF/TPLF.
The EPLF held on to its
ideals of a liberation movement that wanted to develop its country in the
interest of its people. So it followed a policy based upon self-reliance,
mobilising the population, installing national structures, refusing outside
interference via Western NGOs and controlling foreign trade. The EPLF also
followed a policy based on national integration and cohabitation of the 9
Eritrean nationalities and the two religions (Christian and
Muslim).
This was just the opposite of
the policy Zenawi followed in Ethiopia that was based on
privatisation, foreign donors and the policy of International institutions such
as the IMF and the WB.
Confronted with this
difference, Eritrea decided in 1997 to stop using
the Ethiopian pound and chose to have its own currency, the
Nakfa.
From then on, there were many
provocative acts and killings of Eritrean officers and soldiers at the border
that triggered off a war, which lasted from 1998 to 2000.
It was a catastrophic war; on
the Ethiopian side 135.000 soldiers died. In fact the Ethiopians lost the war
and were forced to accept the Algiers agreement in
2000.
The agreement included three
phases:
1
A commission of the International Court in The Hague would decide on
the territorial dispute and the exact location of the border.
2
Another commission of the International Court would decide on the
claims of the two parties for confiscation or damage to property of citizens
that were confiscated by the other side.
3
Finally a commission of the African Union would decide on the question
which country started the war and should have the responsibility to compensate
for the immense damage that was caused by the war.
The two first commissions
have already concluded in favor of the Eritrean position and claims. It is
almost certain that the third commission will condemn Ethiopia, because the Ethiopian government
accused Eritrea of starting
the war by an air-attack against the city of Adi-Grat and occupying the village Badima. This
story of Eritrean jets bombing this city was a lie; once the commission examines
this story, the truth will be crystal clear. What is more: the first commission
already decided that Badima was Eritrean territory.
So there is a sword of
Damocles hanging above the government of Zenawi Meles. Until now the African
Union, under pressure from the USA, postponed the foundation of the
third commission. But sooner or later, this third commission will be
formed.
The very risky war against
Somalia
The extremely fragile
position of the Meles-regime can explain its offensive to attack
Somalia last December. Indeed, by
attacking Somalia under pretext of attacking “the allies and even members of Al
Qaeda” Zenawi wants to position himself as a friend of the U.S. and as Bush's
strong man in the Horn of Africa in the U.S. global war against Islamic terror.
But this is a very risky operation.
First of all, Ethiopia and Somalia have had
a long history of animosity and wars. For the Somalis the Ethiopian invasion is
an aggression of an archenemy. It could be compared to a military intervention
by Germany in
Belgium or
France. Somalis are one people, have
one language and one religion. The only factor that is dividing them is the
clans. Confronted with a foreign occupation force, however, they can unite and
deal heavy blows. It was the Americans themselves who experienced this in 1993.
At that moment they had sent 30.000 marines to the country in a military
operation called “Restore Hope”. But soon they had to withdraw because of their
losses and the fact that the dead corpses of American soldiers were dragged
through the streets in front of the cameras.
Second, the Somali people are tired
of the chaos and destruction of 16 years of a warlord regime. However it is just
the same warlords who have been protected and brought to power again in
Mogadishu by the
Ethiopian army. The warlords were hated before by all Somalis for their
corruption. Now they will be despised as traitors and stooges for the number one
enemy of the Somali people, Ethiopia.
Third, The overwhelming majority of
Somalis saw the Islamic Courts as a stabilizing factor. This support of the
Islamic Courts was not a support for international terrorists. Most
jihadists do not speak Somali and few speak Arabic. They stand out too much with
their different eating habits and clothing. When the population helped the
Islamic Courts to defeat the warlords in a few weeks time and then to liberate
practically the whole country in six months, it was because they were tired of
the anarchy, the pillage of the warlords. You must know that since 1991, 3
million Somalis have left the country and the Somali diaspora are often modern
secular people who try to help their country in spite of the warlords’
corruption. And they are very ingenious at doing that. For example, in spite of
all the chaos, Somalia is one of the only African
countries where every village has good telephone communication facilities. There
is an informal banking system (1 billion $ a year). There are five private
airways and so on. A large number of Diaspora Somalis were willing to return to
Somalia, and rebuild the country,
once peace and security were ensured. When Somali businessmen went to the
American embassy in Nairobi to invite them to
come to Somalia and see for themselves that
there were no Al Qaeda members in the Islamic Courts, the Americans refused.
Somalis will never forget nor
forgive the USA and their
puppet Ethiopia for bringing
Somalia back to the reign of terror
and chaos of the warlords. And in their eyes it is crystal clear that the talk
about Al Qaeda’s presence in Somalia is nothing else then the
excuse, the lie that must justify the war. Just like the lies about the weapons
of mass destruction of Saddam that were used to justify the aggression against
Irak.
Fourth, all Somalis are aware of the
fact that in the sixteen years of anarchic rule by the warlords, there was never
any initiative of the “International Community” to intervene in Somalia.
However, just when the Islamic courts brought order and stability, they saw in
November last year the UN Security council under the instigation of the USA vote
the resolution 1752 that opened the door for the Ethiopian intervention that
brought back the terror and anarchy they had just chased away. So the only way
the common Somali can see this invasion is that of an aggression against the
Somali people and nation.
Fifth, The invading soldiers of
Zenawi in Somalia are largely from his Tigray
Christian tribe. These soldiers do not speak the Somali language; once deep
inside Somalia, they are exposed to attacks
by the locals. But also in Ethiopia itself, Zenawi needs these
men back as soon as possible because he needs them to confront the growing
revolt in his own country.
It is true; the Americans are
negotiating with Uganda and
Nigeria to deliver 8000 troops to
replace the Ethiopian army. But who will pay for this operation and will these
poor governments take the risk of being sucked into the swamp of a guerilla war?
Certainly the different neighboring countries such as Kenya and Uganda take high risks because there are many
Somali refugees living in Kenya who will not forget nor forgive a Kenyan
engagement on the side of Ethiopia.. The Ugandan economy
largely depends on the Kenyan harbor of Mombassa, but near this harbor there is a
city Lamui where Somalis are in the majority. So it may well be that Zenawi’s
troops will be forced to stay too long in Somalia and that
they will be sucked into a swamp that will be fatal for the
TPLF/regime.
What is the role of the
Americans in this war?
The Zenawi regime is a rogue
force used in the hands of American imperialism in the region. Since
Antony Lake, Clinton’s
national security advisor, indicated Ethiopia as one of the four countries (the others
were Nigeria,
South Africa and
Egypt) that are decisive for
the defense of American interests in Africa,
the government of Zenawi has had all the support it
needed.
The Ethiopian army is at
present being reformed as a local mercenary force in the service of the
Americans that can be used against any country in the region. On one of the
American army’s websites, Stars and Stripes (http://www.estripes.com/),
one could read on 30 December the testimony of one of the sixty American
instructors who are training Ethiopian soldiers. Sgt. 1st Class Bill Flippo is
an instructor based at Camp
Hurso near in the city of Dire Dawa, Ethiopia. He says; “I feel that what I’m doing now is really
helping to fight the war on terror,” Flippo said. “The knowledge we are giving to these
soldiers is what they will use if they go and fight in Somalia, Eritrea or
wherever.”
Many observers note that the
invasion of Somalia by
Ethiopia was not only
encouraged, and protected by the USA, but even paid by USA-money. And
after the first successes, American military participated directly with the
Ethiopian army in the hunt for leaders of the Islamic
courts.
What are the American
interests in the region?
There is the presence of oil
and gas reserves. Since 1986, four big oil multinational corporations received
permission for the first time from the Somalian president Siad Barre to search
for oil. And they found important reserves.
But most of all :
Somalia has a very strategic
location. It has a coast of 3300km. This is the longest coastline in Africa. One part of this coastline is just in front of the
most important region in the world for the moment, the Middle East.
Another part of the coastline
faces the Indian Ocean. You must know that
before the arrival of the Portuguese in the 16th century, there was considerable
traffic between India and
Africa that passed by harbors on this coast.
10% of the words of the Somali language are words of Indian
origin.
The Emir of the Indian State of Kudjrad had bodyguards that came
from the Horn of Africa. In the Somali harbors there were also Somali who spoke
Chinese. They were called “Abanas”. They were translators between the Chinese
and businessmen from the African hinterland.
This century the historical
wheel is turning again towards the emerging countries of China and India. Chalmers
Johnson, author and president of the Japan Policy Research Institute, cites
Javed Burki, a former vice-president of the World Bank’s China Department who
predicts that by 2025 China
will probably have a GDP of $25 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity and
will have become the world’s largest economy followed by the US at $ 20
trillion. (http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=2259)
This year we also saw
important efforts from China
to increase its trade with Africa.
China urgently needs oil and other
minerals for its rapidly developing economy. And Africa can respond to that need. So the Horn of Africa has
become a very strategic place for the next twenty years.
Since the Bush-government
cannot control the whole world, they prefer a policy of deliberately
destabilizing the whole region for many years, rather than letting it become a
wealthy region that can play a key-role in the increasing trade relations
between Africa and the new emerging economies of Asia.
There are Somalis living in
different neighboring countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti. Somali nationalism has
ignited and this war will extend into places like Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya, known
until now mostly as a safari destination for Western
tourists.
The peoples of the region are
becoming mature. They see what is happening and their first reaction is that of
horror. If the Bush agenda of destabilizing and genocide continues,
anti-imperialist feelings will increase and people will unite to defend their
homes and countries.
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