By: Richard Roch
Auto123.com
When America coughs, Canada catches a cold! Most people know that. But have you heard that the U.S. Senate recently adopted a proposal that could very well change the auto industry forever? The proposal calls for a new mileage standard for every vehicle on American roads. Basically, the Senate would force automakers to produce light-duty vehicles that achieve on average a 35-MPG rating by 2020. This translates into an annual 4-percent increase in fuel economy, starting in 2011!
First of all, we should point out that the U.S. gallon is only 3.79 litres, which is lower than the 4.55-litre Imperial gallon in Canada. If we take a look at the current standard for vehicle fuel economy in Uncle Sam's land, we learn that cars must achieve a 27.5-MPG rating. Light-duty trucks, meanwhile, can go as low as 21.6 MPG.
Let's start with cars. In order to improve from 27.5 to 35 MPG by 2020, manufacturers would have to increase the mileage by 7.5 MPG, or .58 MPG per year. That's not an unrealistic goal. Personally, I believe that carmakers have the manpower, the technology and the expertise to meet the proposed new standard. One only has to look at the mileage figures for the Toyota Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid to find a good argument. And what about the Chevrolet Volt Concept, an electric vehicle which should go into production as early as 2010?
It's a bit more complicated with light-duty trucks. Indeed, improving from the current norm of 21.6 MPG to 35 MPG would mean a 13.4 MPG increase, or 1 MPG per year. That's roughly twice as much as the increase for cars. And as we all know, American manufacturers carry a lot of pickup trucks and SUVs in their lineup. So, for them, the Senate proposal is a ridiculous idea. They simply don't see how they could meet the projected mileage standard by 2020. I still say that they have enough resources to do it. Surely, they will have to work extremely hard, but everything's possible. One solution could be to discontinue every V8 or V10!
Why do I believe that automakers can meet the new mileage standard? Well, let me remind you of how things were in 1960. There were approximately 74 million cars on the road in the United States, with an average mileage of 8.7 MPG. In 2002, these numbers soared to 235 million and 13.8 MPG. Over the last five years, the average mileage has jumped to 27.5 MPG. This performance is about three times better than 47 years ago! So, as you can see, a 40-percent improvement over the next 13 years is not so hard to fathom. Automakers shouldn't be angry against the government.
The planet is in a pitiful state; the same was true even decades ago. Some new technologies give us hope, but aside from the Chevrolet Volt, there are not too many reasons to rejoice. While we wait for a miracle solution, the remedy is legislation. Since the number of passenger cars on the road increases almost exponentially each and every year (and I'm not even including China), it has become crucial to curb vehicle fuel consumption. The way to do it is by adopting more stringent regulations and laws aimed at automakers. Again, I think that 35 MPG by 2020 is a realistic goal.
The Senate specified other requirements for the next 13 years. Americans should accelerate the transition to alternative fuels such as ethanol, hydrogen, diesel and biodiesel. By 2022, the annual alternative fuel consumption in the US should rise to about 136 million litres. And the petroleum industry will also have to be regulated. Why not? We might not have other choices!
One thing's for sure: automakers will invest astronomical amounts of money in R&D over the upcoming years... and consumers will indirectly absorb the bill. True, if we manage to salvage the planet and get significant fuel savings, it might all be worth it in the end. Consequently, expect to see a lot of major changes in the auto industry. The biggest manufacturers have the technology, the expertise and the money to really surprise us. And I bet they will!
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